I constructed the model below based on a metric dubbed Expected Fantasy clues (XFP). XFP calculates the value of every target and also rushing attempt based on the distance to the finish zone and air yards. These historic data features correlate highly with actual fantasy points scored (PPR scoring).

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XFP essentially shows what a usual player would have actually done through the avenues seen by any kind of given player. For a an ext in-depth breakdown of meant Fantasy Points, click here.

The key purpose of using my XFP model is to help you success trades throughout the season. We desire to sell players who space unsustainably outproducing their meant numbers. We need to buy players who room seeing lot of of volume, yet are underperforming due to negative luck.

For advice on negotiating trades, click here. In addition, i publish a weekly trade value chart with certain values because that every player.

Below, you can uncover expected fantasy points for each player along with their average carries, targets, and air yards through Week 3.

Check out the PDF DOWNLOAD and EXCEL DOWNLOAD links if you choose to browser the data that way. The download links have data broken out because that Weeks 1, 2, and also 3 individually.

Be certain to scroll down below the graph to find particular players ns am looking to buy-low and sell-high this week.

PlayerTMPOSGPPRAVGXFPAVGDIFAVGCARAVGTGTAVGAIRYDSAVG
D.HENRYTENRB325.926-0.127.74.34.3
N.HARRISPITRB317.723.6-5.81492
D.ADAMSGBWR320.621.7-1.1011.3136.7
C.KUPPLAWR330.4219.40.31189.7
C.MCCAFFREYCARRB319.520.9-1.417.35.74
B.COOKSHOUWR320.620.7-0.10.310.7142.7
D.SWIFTDETRB32020.6-0.711.77.7-6
K.ALLENLACWR317.620.6-301191.3
D.COOKMINRB218.620.2-1.621.55-7
S.DIGGSBUFWR314.720.2-5.5010.7136.3
M.WILLIAMSLACWR325.820.15.7010.395.7
D.JOHNSONPITWR217.120.1-301191.5
D.WALLERLVTE316.120-3.9011116.7
D.MOORECARWR319.319.5-0.20.710110
A.KAMARANORB315.318.8-3.517.34.72.7
C.RIDLEYATLWR314.518.8-4.309.785
J.JEFFERSONMINWR319.318.70.6010107.3
D.SAMUELSFWR319.418.31.11.31069.7
M.JONESJAXWR316.118-1.809.3113
J.TAYLORINDRB310.717.9-7.2143.7-7.7
C.CLAYPOOLPITWR312.817.9-5.10.79.7121
C.BEASLEYBUFWR314.117.5-3.401055.7
M.PITTMANINDWR313.217.5-4.30.39.3100.7
J.MEYERSNEWR312.217.3-5.109.795.7
M.DAVISATLRB311.517.2-5.712.35.7-8
C.LAMBDALWR316.817.1-0.30.7991.7
M.EVANSTBWR316.216.9-0.808.3114
A.EKELERLACRB31916.82.21252.7
C.GODWINTBWR319.816.830.38.766.3
A.JONESGBRB321.116.84.314.33.3-2.3
D.HENDERSONLARB216.516.6-0.214.53-1
T.HILLKCWR317.616.41.118.7111.3
J.MIXONCINRB314.516.3-1.822.72.30
A.THIELENMINWR32116.24.808.753.3
J.WADDLEMIAWR314.215.9-1.60941.7
A.COOPERDALWR316.615.51.108.370.3
T.KELCEKCTE322.315.56.808.775.3
D.METCALFSEAWR316.715.41.308.3106
T.MCLAURINWASWR31615.40.608.370
E.ELLIOTTDALRB316.715.41.415.32.30.7
C.EDMONDSARIRB313.915.4-1.510.35.73.7
S.BARKLEYNYGRB311.315.3-413.34.3-4
M.BROWNBALWR31715.11.90.37.7116.3
D.CHARKJAXWR311.515-3.507.3131.7
T.HIGGINSCINWR215.914.61.307.569
M.INGRAMHOURB37.514.5-7161.37.7
J.WILLIAMSDETRB315.514.31.29.34.70.3
J.ROBINSONJAXRB314.414.20.210.355
C.DAVISNYJWR312.914.2-1.307.398.7
D.PARKERMIAWR39.814-4.207.799.7
D.MONTGOMERYCHIRB312.413.9-1.515.730.7
R.GRONKOWSKITBTE319.513.65.906.762
S.WATKINSBALWR310.913.6-2.607.3100.3
H.RENFROWLVWR314.113.50.607.360
E.SANDERSBUFWR314.113.50.706.7112.7
S.SHEPARDNYGWR315.113.41.70.37.364.7
M.SANDERSPHIRB310.913.3-2.410.33.7-7
K.DRAKELVRB310.413.3-2.975.715.7
A.GIBSONWASRB312.813.3-0.415.330
C.SUTTONDENWR31213.2-1.206.7111.7
K.HUNTCLERB31713.13.810.33.7-2
R.WOODSLAWR310.413.1-2.71.36.359
M.GORDONDENRB31513.11.9142.3-0.7
M.GASKINMIARB310.513-2.595.3-3.7
D.SMITHPHIWR39.513-3.507100.3
T.HOCKENSONDETTE316.412.93.50748.7
C.PATTERSONATLRB316.312.93.3750
D.SINGLETARYBUFRB310.612.9-2.311.73.34.7
J.WILLIAMSDENRB38.912.9-413.32-2.3
J.JEUDYDENWR113.212.70.50783
D.HARRISNERB39.412.5-3.11521.3
T.LOCKETTSEAWR321.612.49.306.794.3
L.FOURNETTETBRB39.612.3-2.784.7-0.7
H.RUGGSLVWR313.912.31.50.76.3103
A.ROBINSONCHIWR38.212.3-4.10746.7
E.MITCHELLSFRB211.912.2-0.418.51-4
B.BERRIOSNYJWR39.712.2-2.50754.7
A.BROWNTENWR37.512.1-4.60.36.396.3
M.GALLUPDALWR17.612-4.40742
E.MOORENYJWR34.912-7.10681.7
A.GREENARIWR311.411.9-0.50670.3
K.GOLLADAYNYGWR39.211.9-2.706.388.3
Z.PASCALINDWR313.411.91.50646.3
N.CHUBBCLERB315.811.84171-3
D.MOONEYCHIWR37.411.8-4.406.352.7
M.GESICKIMIATE38.611.8-3.206.763.3
N.HINESINDRB312.111.60.55.35.31.3
A.MATTISONMINRB39.511.6-2.110.33.3-2.3
L.SHENAULTJAXWR37.811.5-3.70.76.730.7
M.VALDES-SCANTLINGGBWR36.511.4-4.905.3116.3
N.AGHOLORNEWR3911.4-2.40688
C.CARSONSEARB314.711.43.313.71.7-2.7
J.JONESTENWR310.811.3-0.50679.7
J.SMITH-SCHUSTERPITWR310.411.3-0.90.36.325.7
J.REAGORPHIWR39.911.2-1.306.360.7
D.HOPKINSARIWR315.611.24.40655.7
T.BOYDCINWR311.4110.406.343.3
C.EDWARDS-HELAIREKCRB39.910.9-1151.7-3
C.KIRKARIWR31710.86.105.788.3
Q.CEPHUSDETWR310.110.6-0.50560.7
M.ANDREWSBALTE310.510.5005.763.3
J.JACOBSLVRB11710.46.61028
P.BARBERLVRB38.810.4-1.612.31.76
J.CHASECINWR318.910.48.50.35.388
G.KITTLESFTE310.910.40.50.3634.7
J.WHITENERB310.410.403.34.717
K.PITTSATLTE38.310.4-2.105.744.3
A.BROWNTBWR213.210.13.10.55103.5
N.FANTDENTE39.710.1-0.405.734
K.OSBORNMINWR313.19.83.305.743
K.RAYMONDDETWR38.59.7-1.20.35.357
R.MOOREARIWR312.59.62.90.3514.3
J.COOKLACTE379.6-2.605.340.7
J.SMITHNETE369.4-3.40.35.325
K.GAINWELLPHIRB38.69.4-0.85.73.3-6.3
T.CONKLINMINTE310.59.41.105.324.7
T.WILLIAMSBALRB310.69.31.39.32.37
M.HARDMANKCWR39.39.20.10.3543.3
T.POLLARDDALRB312.99.23.892.7-7
J.DOYLEINDTE36.89-2.104.724
M.CARTERNYJRB36.29-2.78.32.71.3
L.THOMASWASTE311.292.304.735
T.MARSHALLCARWR36.48.9-2.604.728
G.BERNARDTBRB398.80.1053
D.SLAYTONNYGWR38.68.7-0.204.767.3
Z.MOSSBUFRB311.28.72.571.7-0.7
T.PATRICKDENWR313.88.65.204.349
K.BOURNENEWR39.68.610.34.757
D.SCHULTZDALTE313.48.64.90529.3
R.GAGEATLWR23.98.6-4.704.59
J.HASTYSFRB29.48.50.833-0.5
T.JOHNSONNYJRB348.5-4.56.32.719.7
C.HUBBARDCARRB34.88.2-3.56.32.32.3
J.CONNERARIRB38.78.20.511.70.30.7
B.EDWARDSLVWR310.38.12.204.368.3
C.ROGERSTENWR37.37.9-0.604.340
A.HUMPHRIESWASWR35.47.9-2.504.721.3
H.HENRYNETE377.6-0.704.334
D.BROWNWASWR32.37.6-5.30.3456.7
S.MICHELLARB35.27.5-2.310.31.3-1.3
T.HIGBEELATE39.57.520412
V.JEFFERSONLAWR38.97.41.40459.7
D.KNOXBUFTE310.97.13.80426.3
R.ANDERSONCARWR37.170.103.765
J.MCKISSICWASRB39722.7311.3
C.KMETCHITE34.16.7-2.60418.3
M.CALLAWAYNOWR36.46.7-0.303.734.7
A.HOOPERCLETE38.26.61.603.718.7
D.GOEDERTPHITE39.16.52.503.723
K.HAMLERDENWR34.16.5-2.403.367
D.ARNOLDCARTE35.16.5-1.403.733.7
A. ST. BROWNDETWR33.46.4-303.331
P.FREIERMUTHPITTE37.46.4103.328
C.WILSONDALWR36.56.10.40.3327
J.MCNICHOLSTENRB36.960.91.738.3
T.BENSONDETWR32.85.9-3.103.329.7
O.BECKHAMCLEWR34.65.8-1.30.3349.7
B.JARWINDALTE355.7-0.703.318
D.WILLIAMSCHIRB33.55.7-2.22.72.70.3
J.LANDRYCLEWR210.75.650.537
C.HYDEJAXRB34.35.6-1.36.71.32
D.JOHNSONHOURB36.55.513.721
P.LINDSAYHOURB36.15.40.76.70.7-2.3
J.GUYTONLACWR34.15.4-1.30.72.726.3
J.JOHNSONNOTE36.85.31.502.329.3
D.NJOKUCLETE34.85.2-0.402.743.7
A.DILLONGBRB33.95.2-1.351.72.7
S.AHMEDMIARB32.25.1-2.93212.7
T.KROFTNYJTE33.55-1.50314
A.OKWUEGBUNAMDENTE35.550.502.74.7
L.MURRAYBALRB37.152.1900
R.GRIFFINNYJTE33.25-1.80311.3
M.GOODWINCHIWR33.45-1.50.32.724
N.WESTBROOK-IKHINETENWR35.64.90.702.325.3
D.ROBINSONKCWR36.44.91.502.732.7
H.BRYANTCLETE33.94.8-102.732
R.TONYANGBTE36.24.71.502.75.3
D.JACKSONLAWR38.44.63.702.350.7
T.JONESNORB33.74.6-0.85.312.7
R.JONESTBRB31.74.6-2.95.310.3
L.ROUNTREELACRB31.34.4-3.14.70.7-0.3
W.FULLERMIAWR32.34.3-1.90240.3
Q.WATKINSPHIWR38.54.34.302.331
T.SHERFIELDSFWR34.14.100221.3
E.ENGRAMNYGTE30.73.7-30213.3
T.TREMBLECARTE33.61.12.50.30.38.3

WEEK 3 BUY-LOW

STEFON DIGGS
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To it is in clear, I believe Ja’Marr Chase is a talented player. This suggestion applies only if you deserve to package him for much more proven luxury talent in a redraft league. I perform expect Chase’s target re-publishing to increase as the season walk on.

With that said, Chase’s current production is unsustainable offered the opportunities he is getting. Regardless of his sizzling begin to the year, follow is only averaging 10.4 XFP every game, which ranks 60th in ~ the large receiver position. This number even includes last week’s video game without teammate Tee Higgins, but Chase still just saw 5 targets in week 3.

The key reason for Chase’s inflated manufacturing is the he’s scored 4 touchdowns in spite of seeing only one red zone target top top the season (which he did transform for a touchdown). Higgins and also Tyler Boyd room both out-targeting Chase, averaging 7.5 and also 6.3 targets, respectively, contrasted to 5.3 for Chase. It’s certainly possible that Chase’s target share rises throughout the season, yet it’s also possible that Higgins continues to offer as the main option all season.

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The exaggeration for follow is exceptionally high right now, and I would certainly at the very least ar offers because that him.

FINAL THOUGHTS

That’s every I have for main 4. Currently that you an supposed Fantasy clues Expert, you can use the device to dominate your league. Check earlier next week for an updated trade value chart and much more players to buy low and also sell high. Please send any questions or feedback to