I built the model below based on a metric called Expected Fantasy Points (XFP). XFP calculates the value of each target and rushing attempt based on the distance to the end zone and air yards. These historical data attributes correlate highly with actual fantasy points scored (PPR scoring).

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XFP essentially shows what a typical player would have done with the opportunities seen by any given player. For a more in-depth breakdown of Expected Fantasy Points, click here.

The main purpose of using my XFP model is to help you win trades during the season. We want to sell players who are unsustainably outproducing their expected numbers. We should buy players who are seeing plenty of volume, but are underperforming due to bad luck.

For tips on negotiating trades, click here. In addition, I publish a weekly trade value chart with specific values for every player.

Below, you can find expected fantasy points for each player along with their average carries, targets, and air yards through Week 3.

Check out the PDF DOWNLOAD and EXCEL DOWNLOAD links if you prefer to browse the data that way. The download links have data broken out for Weeks 1, 2, and 3 individually.

Be sure to scroll down below the chart to find specific players I am looking to buy-low and sell-high this week.

PlayerTMPOSGPPRAVGXFPAVGDIFAVGCARAVGTGTAVGAIRYDSAVG
D.HENRYTENRB325.926-0.127.74.34.3
N.HARRISPITRB317.723.6-5.81492
D.ADAMSGBWR320.621.7-1.1011.3136.7
C.KUPPLAWR330.4219.40.31189.7
C.MCCAFFREYCARRB319.520.9-1.417.35.74
B.COOKSHOUWR320.620.7-0.10.310.7142.7
D.SWIFTDETRB32020.6-0.711.77.7-6
K.ALLENLACWR317.620.6-301191.3
D.COOKMINRB218.620.2-1.621.55-7
S.DIGGSBUFWR314.720.2-5.5010.7136.3
M.WILLIAMSLACWR325.820.15.7010.395.7
D.JOHNSONPITWR217.120.1-301191.5
D.WALLERLVTE316.120-3.9011116.7
D.MOORECARWR319.319.5-0.20.710110
A.KAMARANORB315.318.8-3.517.34.72.7
C.RIDLEYATLWR314.518.8-4.309.785
J.JEFFERSONMINWR319.318.70.6010107.3
D.SAMUELSFWR319.418.31.11.31069.7
M.JONESJAXWR316.118-1.809.3113
J.TAYLORINDRB310.717.9-7.2143.7-7.7
C.CLAYPOOLPITWR312.817.9-5.10.79.7121
C.BEASLEYBUFWR314.117.5-3.401055.7
M.PITTMANINDWR313.217.5-4.30.39.3100.7
J.MEYERSNEWR312.217.3-5.109.795.7
M.DAVISATLRB311.517.2-5.712.35.7-8
C.LAMBDALWR316.817.1-0.30.7991.7
M.EVANSTBWR316.216.9-0.808.3114
A.EKELERLACRB31916.82.21252.7
C.GODWINTBWR319.816.830.38.766.3
A.JONESGBRB321.116.84.314.33.3-2.3
D.HENDERSONLARB216.516.6-0.214.53-1
T.HILLKCWR317.616.41.118.7111.3
J.MIXONCINRB314.516.3-1.822.72.30
A.THIELENMINWR32116.24.808.753.3
J.WADDLEMIAWR314.215.9-1.60941.7
A.COOPERDALWR316.615.51.108.370.3
T.KELCEKCTE322.315.56.808.775.3
D.METCALFSEAWR316.715.41.308.3106
T.MCLAURINWASWR31615.40.608.370
E.ELLIOTTDALRB316.715.41.415.32.30.7
C.EDMONDSARIRB313.915.4-1.510.35.73.7
S.BARKLEYNYGRB311.315.3-413.34.3-4
M.BROWNBALWR31715.11.90.37.7116.3
D.CHARKJAXWR311.515-3.507.3131.7
T.HIGGINSCINWR215.914.61.307.569
M.INGRAMHOURB37.514.5-7161.37.7
J.WILLIAMSDETRB315.514.31.29.34.70.3
J.ROBINSONJAXRB314.414.20.210.355
C.DAVISNYJWR312.914.2-1.307.398.7
D.PARKERMIAWR39.814-4.207.799.7
D.MONTGOMERYCHIRB312.413.9-1.515.730.7
R.GRONKOWSKITBTE319.513.65.906.762
S.WATKINSBALWR310.913.6-2.607.3100.3
H.RENFROWLVWR314.113.50.607.360
E.SANDERSBUFWR314.113.50.706.7112.7
S.SHEPARDNYGWR315.113.41.70.37.364.7
M.SANDERSPHIRB310.913.3-2.410.33.7-7
K.DRAKELVRB310.413.3-2.975.715.7
A.GIBSONWASRB312.813.3-0.415.330
C.SUTTONDENWR31213.2-1.206.7111.7
K.HUNTCLERB31713.13.810.33.7-2
R.WOODSLAWR310.413.1-2.71.36.359
M.GORDONDENRB31513.11.9142.3-0.7
M.GASKINMIARB310.513-2.595.3-3.7
D.SMITHPHIWR39.513-3.507100.3
T.HOCKENSONDETTE316.412.93.50748.7
C.PATTERSONATLRB316.312.93.3750
D.SINGLETARYBUFRB310.612.9-2.311.73.34.7
J.WILLIAMSDENRB38.912.9-413.32-2.3
J.JEUDYDENWR113.212.70.50783
D.HARRISNERB39.412.5-3.11521.3
T.LOCKETTSEAWR321.612.49.306.794.3
L.FOURNETTETBRB39.612.3-2.784.7-0.7
H.RUGGSLVWR313.912.31.50.76.3103
A.ROBINSONCHIWR38.212.3-4.10746.7
E.MITCHELLSFRB211.912.2-0.418.51-4
B.BERRIOSNYJWR39.712.2-2.50754.7
A.BROWNTENWR37.512.1-4.60.36.396.3
M.GALLUPDALWR17.612-4.40742
E.MOORENYJWR34.912-7.10681.7
A.GREENARIWR311.411.9-0.50670.3
K.GOLLADAYNYGWR39.211.9-2.706.388.3
Z.PASCALINDWR313.411.91.50646.3
N.CHUBBCLERB315.811.84171-3
D.MOONEYCHIWR37.411.8-4.406.352.7
M.GESICKIMIATE38.611.8-3.206.763.3
N.HINESINDRB312.111.60.55.35.31.3
A.MATTISONMINRB39.511.6-2.110.33.3-2.3
L.SHENAULTJAXWR37.811.5-3.70.76.730.7
M.VALDES-SCANTLINGGBWR36.511.4-4.905.3116.3
N.AGHOLORNEWR3911.4-2.40688
C.CARSONSEARB314.711.43.313.71.7-2.7
J.JONESTENWR310.811.3-0.50679.7
J.SMITH-SCHUSTERPITWR310.411.3-0.90.36.325.7
J.REAGORPHIWR39.911.2-1.306.360.7
D.HOPKINSARIWR315.611.24.40655.7
T.BOYDCINWR311.4110.406.343.3
C.EDWARDS-HELAIREKCRB39.910.9-1151.7-3
C.KIRKARIWR31710.86.105.788.3
Q.CEPHUSDETWR310.110.6-0.50560.7
M.ANDREWSBALTE310.510.5005.763.3
J.JACOBSLVRB11710.46.61028
P.BARBERLVRB38.810.4-1.612.31.76
J.CHASECINWR318.910.48.50.35.388
G.KITTLESFTE310.910.40.50.3634.7
J.WHITENERB310.410.403.34.717
K.PITTSATLTE38.310.4-2.105.744.3
A.BROWNTBWR213.210.13.10.55103.5
N.FANTDENTE39.710.1-0.405.734
K.OSBORNMINWR313.19.83.305.743
K.RAYMONDDETWR38.59.7-1.20.35.357
R.MOOREARIWR312.59.62.90.3514.3
J.COOKLACTE379.6-2.605.340.7
J.SMITHNETE369.4-3.40.35.325
K.GAINWELLPHIRB38.69.4-0.85.73.3-6.3
T.CONKLINMINTE310.59.41.105.324.7
T.WILLIAMSBALRB310.69.31.39.32.37
M.HARDMANKCWR39.39.20.10.3543.3
T.POLLARDDALRB312.99.23.892.7-7
J.DOYLEINDTE36.89-2.104.724
M.CARTERNYJRB36.29-2.78.32.71.3
L.THOMASWASTE311.292.304.735
T.MARSHALLCARWR36.48.9-2.604.728
G.BERNARDTBRB398.80.1053
D.SLAYTONNYGWR38.68.7-0.204.767.3
Z.MOSSBUFRB311.28.72.571.7-0.7
T.PATRICKDENWR313.88.65.204.349
K.BOURNENEWR39.68.610.34.757
D.SCHULTZDALTE313.48.64.90529.3
R.GAGEATLWR23.98.6-4.704.59
J.HASTYSFRB29.48.50.833-0.5
T.JOHNSONNYJRB348.5-4.56.32.719.7
C.HUBBARDCARRB34.88.2-3.56.32.32.3
J.CONNERARIRB38.78.20.511.70.30.7
B.EDWARDSLVWR310.38.12.204.368.3
C.ROGERSTENWR37.37.9-0.604.340
A.HUMPHRIESWASWR35.47.9-2.504.721.3
H.HENRYNETE377.6-0.704.334
D.BROWNWASWR32.37.6-5.30.3456.7
S.MICHELLARB35.27.5-2.310.31.3-1.3
T.HIGBEELATE39.57.520412
V.JEFFERSONLAWR38.97.41.40459.7
D.KNOXBUFTE310.97.13.80426.3
R.ANDERSONCARWR37.170.103.765
J.MCKISSICWASRB39722.7311.3
C.KMETCHITE34.16.7-2.60418.3
M.CALLAWAYNOWR36.46.7-0.303.734.7
A.HOOPERCLETE38.26.61.603.718.7
D.GOEDERTPHITE39.16.52.503.723
K.HAMLERDENWR34.16.5-2.403.367
D.ARNOLDCARTE35.16.5-1.403.733.7
A. ST. BROWNDETWR33.46.4-303.331
P.FREIERMUTHPITTE37.46.4103.328
C.WILSONDALWR36.56.10.40.3327
J.MCNICHOLSTENRB36.960.91.738.3
T.BENSONDETWR32.85.9-3.103.329.7
O.BECKHAMCLEWR34.65.8-1.30.3349.7
B.JARWINDALTE355.7-0.703.318
D.WILLIAMSCHIRB33.55.7-2.22.72.70.3
J.LANDRYCLEWR210.75.650.537
C.HYDEJAXRB34.35.6-1.36.71.32
D.JOHNSONHOURB36.55.513.721
P.LINDSAYHOURB36.15.40.76.70.7-2.3
J.GUYTONLACWR34.15.4-1.30.72.726.3
J.JOHNSONNOTE36.85.31.502.329.3
D.NJOKUCLETE34.85.2-0.402.743.7
A.DILLONGBRB33.95.2-1.351.72.7
S.AHMEDMIARB32.25.1-2.93212.7
T.KROFTNYJTE33.55-1.50314
A.OKWUEGBUNAMDENTE35.550.502.74.7
L.MURRAYBALRB37.152.1900
R.GRIFFINNYJTE33.25-1.80311.3
M.GOODWINCHIWR33.45-1.50.32.724
N.WESTBROOK-IKHINETENWR35.64.90.702.325.3
D.ROBINSONKCWR36.44.91.502.732.7
H.BRYANTCLETE33.94.8-102.732
R.TONYANGBTE36.24.71.502.75.3
D.JACKSONLAWR38.44.63.702.350.7
T.JONESNORB33.74.6-0.85.312.7
R.JONESTBRB31.74.6-2.95.310.3
L.ROUNTREELACRB31.34.4-3.14.70.7-0.3
W.FULLERMIAWR32.34.3-1.90240.3
Q.WATKINSPHIWR38.54.34.302.331
T.SHERFIELDSFWR34.14.100221.3
E.ENGRAMNYGTE30.73.7-30213.3
T.TREMBLECARTE33.61.12.50.30.38.3

WEEK 3 BUY-LOW

STEFON DIGGS
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To be clear, I believe Ja’Marr Chase is a talented player. This suggestion applies only if you can package him for more proven high-end talent in a redraft league. I do expect Chase’s target share to increase as the season goes on.

With that said, Chase’s current production is unsustainable given the opportunities he is getting. Despite his sizzling start to the year, Chase is only averaging 10.4 XFP per game, which ranks 60th at the wide receiver position. This number even includes last week’s game without teammate Tee Higgins, but Chase still only saw five targets in Week 3.

The main reason for Chase’s inflated production is that he’s scored four touchdowns despite seeing only one red zone target on the season (which he did convert for a touchdown). Higgins and Tyler Boyd are both out-targeting Chase, averaging 7.5 and 6.3 targets, respectively, compared to 5.3 for Chase. It’s certainly possible that Chase’s target share rises throughout the season, but it’s also possible that Higgins continues to serve as the primary option all season.

See more: Kingdom Hearts Birth By Sleep Final Mix Cheats For Ps4, Kingdom Hearts Birth By Sleep

The hype for Chase is extremely high right now, and I would at the very least field offers for him.

FINAL THOUGHTS

That’s all I have for Week 4. Now that you’re an Expected Fantasy Points Expert, you can use the tool to dominate your league. Check back next week for an updated trade value chart and more players to buy low and sell high. Please send any questions or feedback to