Share every sharing choices for: Ole miss out on vs. Auburn 2015: Forget the revenge story line, there"s plenty an ext at stake because that the Rebels


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Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY sporting activities
prior to we get too far, let"s create that we"re no going come talk about last year"s Auburn game.

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Throw out all of the revenge story lines and bulletin board product so we can emphasis on what this game really is: a matchup in between one ridiculously talented yet maddeningly inconsistent team that"s trying to pull back into the SEC West race and also another shockingly disappointed team that"s trying to rescue the wreckage of what it assumed would be a conference championship run. With 6-2 Ole miss clinging to remote Playoff hopes and also 4-3 Auburn currently nursing three department losses, this is a far cry from last season"s upstream showdo...

I claimed we"re not talking about last year"s Auburn game.

But the lights of Ole Miss" department title wishes haven"t flicked off yet. The only an excellent thing about losing to Memphis is the it doesn"t count in the direction of the SEC West standings. In the eyes of the SEC, the Rebs sit simply behind LSU (and in prior of Bama) through one conference loss. The opportunities of a two-loss team earning a Playoff bid is a conversation for one more time -- for currently all you need to understand is that Ole miss out on still controls its very own destiny when it comes to Atlanta. And also wouldn"t it it is in nice to stick a dagger in Auburn after critical season"s...

I stated WE"RE no TALKING around LAST YEAR"S AUBURN GAME.

But the all goes the end the window if the Rebs trip up on the road against an Auburn team that, in spite of that horrible start, has actually looked increasingly competent. 2 weeks back the many tigers took under a Kentucky team that came right into the video game 4-1, then took Arkansas come the brink in a four-overtime thriller critical Saturday. Freshman quarterback Sean White is detect a groove, running back Peyton Barber is spring unstoppable and also a slowly improving happen rush might be gaining Carl Lawson back.

Let"s take it a depths dive right into the matchup.

Four practiced stats

Auburn student in the first year quarterback Sean White has actually thrown exactly zero touchdowns in four games. However don"t be misled -- he"s to be a major improvement over Jeremy Johnson since of much better accuracy and much better decision making. Johnson completed 59.7 percent that his attempts and also threw a pick every 12 passes. White is completing overcome at a 63.9 percent clip and also has thrown just one pick in 97 attempts. yet White"s mostly stuck come high-percentage passes and also hasn"t been able to open up up the offense. Auburn is 3rd to critical in the country in plays (run or pass) that 20-plus yards and is also third to critical in football Outsiders" IsoPPP, a metric that explosiveness. but here"s what Auburn go well: operation the dang ball when it demands to. Many thanks to 5"11, 225-pound bulldozer Peyton Barber (nine the his 12 touchdowns have actually come from within the three yard-line) the Tigers are converting 77.1 percent of your short-yardage opportunities (20th in the country) and are 2nd in the SEC in red zone touchdown percent (67.9). In short, they"re the anti-Ole Miss. But, hey, just how "bout that Rebel running game? after ~ averaging a horrific 2.69 yards per carry against Bama, Vandy, Florida and also Memphis, Ole miss opened that up for a healthy and balanced 4.5 yards every carry against A&M. Was it the Tunsil impact or to be it just A&M"s terrible run defense? either way, Auburn is even worse -- the tigers are offering up 4.9 yards per carry, which ranking one spot below the Aggies in ~ 13th in the league.

Three bros to store an eye on

Two inquiries that require answers

Is Auburn nursing a hangover? Nah, i don"t mean tried-to-go-shot-for-shot-with-Andy-Kennedy-at-the-Library hungover. I mean went-through-four-overtime-periods-against-Arkansas"-pounding-ground-attack hungover. The Hogs ran 49 times against Auburn"s lackluster front, which might soften things up because that what us hope is a new-and-improved Rebel to run game. The mainly after Jacksonville State take it Auburn to OT previously this season, Leonard Fournette ran because that a career-high 228 yards. However pump the brakes a tad, body blow theorists: because 2011, teams that have actually gone to three or an ext overtimes space actually 21-17 in their following game. (That excludes the two OT games last week and three bowl games.)

One hopefully correct prediction

Ole miss hasn"t winner on the roadway in Auburn because 2003, but I think we have the right to go front and throw out historical loss trends in the state of Alabama. Offered the Tigers" lousy defense, it"s difficult to intend their monotonous violation to save pace with Swag Kelly and also the quick-strike Rebels. Yet if over there is a recipe because that an upset, i think that looks prefer this:

The Rebs" floor success against A&M turns out to it is in a speed in the pan and Auburn"s operation defense dram well sufficient to force Ole miss out on to be one-dimensional. Carl Lawson plays and sparks a revitilized happen rush, which gets to Kelly enough to force a few turnovers. Robert Nkemdiche is much less than 100 percent and Peyton Barber is able to regulate the pace on the ground. A near game and a reliable running attack keeps Sean White from having actually to worry around making huge plays.

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But i don"t see lot of that happening. I"ll take it the Rebs to cover the six-point spread out with a 27-17 win.